Wind Exalted AliceTier 2
at 漫果子大直店5/9 RDO店冠賽
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.1%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1258
Q3 1388
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Exalted Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
